No Turning Back: The Extinction Scenario
Suppose that this is true. Now imagine that the Toba eruption had eradicated humans from the earth. How bad would that have been? Some generations and billion lives later , it is plausible to say that the death and suffering caused by the Toba eruption would have been trivial in comparison with the loss of all the human lives that have been lived from then to now, and everything humanity has achieved since that time. Similarly, if humanity goes extinct now, the worst aspect of this would be the opportunity cost. Civilization began only a few thousand years ago. Yet Earth could remain habitable for another billion years.
And if it is possible to colonize space, our species may survive much longer than that. Some people would reject this way of assessing the value of future generations. They may claim that bringing new people into existence cannot be a benefit, regardless of what kind of life these people have. On this view, the value of avoiding human extinction is restricted to people alive today and people who are already going to exist, and who may want to have children or grandchildren. Why would someone believe this? We disagree.
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We think that causing people to exist can benefit them. To see why, first notice that causing people to exist can be bad for those people. For example, suppose some woman knows that if she conceives a child during the next few months, the child will suffer from multiple painful diseases and die very young. It would obviously be bad for her child if she decided to conceive during the next few months. If that is right, then it appears that it would be wrong to have children, because there is always a risk that they will be harmed, and no compensating benefit to outweigh the risk of harm.
Because most of you that have understood the previous facts that do not fall into a defensive denial, will naturally and appropriately feel shocked, sad, angry or even betrayed, the most logical and best thing to do to deal with those often overwhelming feelings is to work for "the best" while you prepare for "the worst," just in case we fail.
What this means is that you will need to focus as much as your energy and resources on just two main action strategies:. Get busy on getting the reduction targets met by getting our governments enacting and enforcing the laws needed to reach the targets. Click here to begin this process. There is only one thing we can always be certain of in this emergency. Help us get the global fossil fuel reduction goals met by signing the global warming extinction emergency petition now.
So what MUST we do individually and collectively at this critical moment in time if we are to survive? First of all, You must make a decision about the rationality and factual nature of what you have just read.
If you find this information credible and reasonable, you must decide what you are going to do to manage or adapt to what you have learned. As this document clearly shows, there is no escape or easy solutions. There will be unconscionable, unbearable and unthinkable pain whether we are successful in radically reducing fossil fuel usage to the targets or whether we are not successful. In spite of all of the many challenges and painful difficulties of radically reducing global fossil fuel usage to the required target levels to prevent most if not all of humanity from going extinct, what other real choice is there?
Therefore in every situation above, the only way we save our future is to cooperate globally at the highest governmental levels and radically reduce global fossil fuel use to the reduction numbers mentioned on this page! While there will be unimaginable pain either way, but at least, if we are successful with our fossil fuel reductions , some of humanity and our civilization will go on. And even if we are not successful with our targets, at least if we're making radical progress towards them progress towards them, more people will live longer more comfortably.
And that alone is a tremendous value to the future. What our governments must specifically do is in Part 3 of the Job One Plan. What we must do is in Parts 1,2 and 4 of the Job One Plan. At this point, you're probably feeling a bit overwhelmed by what you have read and the enormity of what we must do to survive. You may have also reached the point of saying it's impossible or, the task is so large with such a low probability of success, why even try.
The following ancient story and subsequent materials should help you deal with these natural mindsets to just give up or deny the problem even exists. A wise Chinese general was cornered at the banks of a large river by an opposing army at least 20 times larger than his own. His only means of escape was to get his army across the river before they were attacked. This general had also previously placed enough boats on the bank of the river for escape with his army should that need arise.
As the larger army approached, pushing the smaller army closer to the river, this general gave the order to his most trusted lieutenants to rush to the boats and burn them. When his army saw their only means of escape was being destroyed, they became wildly angry and charged toward the general.
Preventing human extinction
The army demanded to know why their trusted general had burned their escape boats and condemned all of them to certain death at the hands of a vastly superior army. There is no other alternative and no escape. His army now knew their only option was victory or death. Filled with such clarity and single-mindedness of purpose, they fought with such reckless intensity, they defeated the opposing army 20 times their size.
Now that you truly understand the rapidly approaching consequences of our global warming extinction emergency, you too should no longer retain any illusion of any real long-term escape for you or your family, business, nation or for humanity or our civilization. We are now at the last chance fossil fuel reduction climate cliff. Yes, this is the perilous tipping point that we have come to because of our inaction and ineffectiveness in addressing global warming for almost 35 years. If we are very, very lucky, we will make the required critical fossil fuel cuts. By doing nothing to get our governments to radically and immediately lower fossil fuel use to meet the targets, even if we fail, your inaction will only shorten the critical time frame necessary to move people, technology, and infrastructure to the far north or far south so that possibly you or those you love can be temporarily safe and live a little bit longer with a little less suffering.
Better yet, if we act wisely together and get our governments in action to radically cut fossil fuel use now to meet the targets and, we are very lucky, humanity and civilization will continue. What do you have to lose and, what rational alternative do you have other than to act immediately to get our governments to radically reduce global fossil fuel use to meet the targets , and at the same time get prepared for the coming horrible consequences that are already unavoidable?
What you need to realize unequivocally is that hitting the global fossil fuel reduction targets IS our last small chance to avoid mass extinction and chaos in our lifetimes! It is just that simple. What legitimate excuse is there for you to not also help our organization mobilize more people like yourself to face and deal with this humanity ending emergency. If we do not hit the If we do not hit the targets, the following consequences and time frames will occur even sooner.
Many individuals around the world are experiencing many severe consequences already. In about 10 to 15 years, the 20 major consequences of global warming, the accumulating mass migrations of climagees climate migrants , and the global warming aggravated economic, ecological, political, and societal effects will have increasingly severe and destabilizing impacts in almost all areas of the world. But global warming consequence severity will increase most rapidly within the next years in the areas between the 25th parallel north and the 25th parallel south.
Depending on your current and ultimate location, financial loss and death tolls from global warming-related catastrophes will continue to rise steadily until we reached what we call the last phases of the Climageddon Scenario. This will occur primarily because of more crossed global warming tipping points as well as starvation, migration wars, civil unrest and many of the other 20 worst global warming consequences.
In general, the many coming global warming consequences will almost always increase in severity, frequency, and scale over time and, their progression will not be a slow and steady linear progression. In many cases and locations, it soon will be an exponential progression with massive climate, biological and human system crashes and collapses. Now that you have a useful and relevant developmental time window for our global warming extinction emergency, you are ready to learn more about what out of control global warming is as well as how it will inescapably adversely affect your future, family, finances and nation, and what you can still do about it.
At the end of this document, you will also find some good news and other surprise benefits that will also help you maintain a more positive "bigger picture" context for the incredibly difficult situation we find ourselves in now that global warming has in many ways already become out of our meaningful control as described throughout this document. As you continue reading so much difficult news do not forget, if we are smart and move quickly, we can also still slow and lessen some of the worst of the 20 major coming consequences. The preceding information means that it is highly likely various climate systems and subsystems will still continue in a positive feedback loop of ever-increasing average global temperature.
Keep in mind that as the temperature continues to rise, we will always cross more tipping points faster and faster, which will result in faster and faster even spiking increases in average global temperatures and a cascading climate meltdown. Please see the new book Climageddon for all the details on exact Climageddon Scenario meltdown. Additionally, it is wise to remember that at the minimum, the relative time frame for removing sequestering the carbon ppm particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere is centuries to thousands of years.
This means that long, long after we stop actively polluting our atmosphere with fossil fuels at least 50 years from now, the 20 most deadly consequences of those actions will last for many, many generations. Viewing the dangerous rise of human-caused atmospheric carbon in parts per million ppm from a historical perspective will help you understand just how bad it really is! The following graph will help illustrate what will happen to our carbon ppm levels in the future from a perspective of hundreds of thousands of years in the past. As you can see in the last part of the graph, which has been broken out in the smaller yellow box to better illustrate the last 1, years, it clearly shows we have entered a whole new much higher range of increased atmospheric carbon risk and threat exposure.
We have deviated from Ice Age long-term cyclical carbon ppm highs of about carbon ppm to over carbon ppm. As of May we are at about carbon ppm. Image via Robert A. Rohdes, Wikimedia Commons. Parts per million by volume [ppmv] includes other pollutants and trace greenhouse gases, such as methane.
For hundreds of thousands of years, we always stayed below carbon parts per million by volume ppmv --the range conducive for human life. But with the advent of the Industrial Revolution and fossil fuel use, average global temperatures and carbon ppm have soared to levels unseen for millions of years about 1. This is very bad for our future and our civilization because carbon to ppm is roughly double the previous civilization safe highest Ice Age cyclical average point of about carbon ppm for the last , years. At this ppm level, we will be crossing more global warming tipping points at a faster and faster rate.
Therefore, the time to enjoy your life is now because the escalating global warming extinction emergency is going to make life progressively worse faster and faster. Over many hundreds of thousands of years, our planet's climate has remained relatively stable and highly conducive to the development of humanity and our civilization. During those hundreds of thousands of years, the atmospheric level of carbon particles in our atmosphere was consistently around carbon ppm.
If atmospheric carbon moves much above or much below that ppm level things do not work out nearly as well for humanity and civilization. At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing sequestering the carbon particles we are currently adding to our atmosphere through natural means is centuries to thousands of years.
Luckily, nature has an amazing ability to heal itself over great spans of time. If we do that it may take centuries to thousands of years, but nature will take care of itself and clean our atmosphere. Therefore, What each of us needs to realize unequivocally is that hitting the global fossil fuel reduction targets IS our last chance to avoid mass extinction and chaos in our lifetimes! It really is that simple. Click here for the full story. The initial temperature range for triggering the beginning of being in a state of out of control global warming varies between 1.
This is, unfortunately, the last chance climate cliff where we are at now or, very close to that or even beyond that, temperature when you also add in and compensate for the following factors:. Committed global warming simply means that even though we are not there yet, we are unavoidably committed to reaching some certain temperature level in the near future first because of what has happened in the past, but also what is happening now. Committed or "baked in" global warming occurs due to complex climate processes, including numerous climate system and climate subsystem momentums and inertias which are too complex to describe fully here, but are fully described in the new Climageddon book.
At the minimum, the relative time frame for removing sequestering the carbon particles that we are currently adding to our atmosphere at about 3 ppm every year is centuries to thousands of years.
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Both we in the near future and future generations will suffer dearly for our failures to address and resolve this emergency now. From all of the preceding facts on this page, you should now be able to clearly see that the truth behind why global warming is most likely already now out of our meaningful control for as much as the next years. It is also because of:. And here's the biggest takeaway. Because we are most likely already out of meaningful control of global warming for as much as the next years, we are now facing an imminent extinction threat and event.
From all of the above on this page, you can see that there is no escape. In every situation, the only way we save any part of a liveable future is to radically and immediately cut fossil fuel use to slow things down enough that we have time to prepare, migrate and adapt as well as possible so that some of humanity and civilization survives. In all of the above-discussed scenarios, no matter what, we must do what we can and make the best of a horrible escalating emergency.
We need to come together immediately and get our governments very busy in a mass global mobilization with what we still can do! There is another dark and chaotic possibility for our future that would also allow a small portion of humanity to survive. If we do not make our fossil fuel reduction targets this will naturally occur and continue to escalate over the following decades. As mentioned before, this will occur naturally because of massive crop failures, starvation and the other economic, social and political conflict, breakdown and chaos.
But even if this happens because we fail to radically reduce our fossil fuel use to the required targets, it will still take centuries to thousands of years before the average global temperature and the planet recovers from what we have already done to it! Any unlucky survivors will be living a nightmare of higher temperatures, extreme weather and chains of other consequences we can barely envision just from what we have already done to our atmosphere.
As you can see from the first atmospheric carbon ppm graph on this page, we are not making anything even close to the required radical cuts in our fossil fuel use to reduce the carbon going into our atmosphere. Those are the real fossil fuel use needed reduction numbers and not the grossly miscalculated and misleading reduction numbers better forwarded by the IPCC and most governments of the world. We are not making anything even close to these levels of mass extinction prevention fossil fuel cuts!
If you're a pragmatist, because of the many reasons above we may not be able to stop escalating global warming for at least another years, this also means we will not be able to prevent massive global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and the near extinction or complete extinction of humanity far sooner than imagined. But can we really make those life-critical cuts in time? If your pragmatist, you will most likely believe that it is highly improbable we will ever make the critically needed cuts to our fossil fuel usage by to save ourselves.
There are several reasons you may be correct. This well-documented climate research is the research most often ignored by environmental groups around the world because it produces a horrible dilemma for which either answer is unthinkable as well as un-sellable to members and donors. If you're a science person, please click here and read a summary of Prof. Because of all of the preceding on "why global warming is out of our meaningful control for at least another years factors," it is hard to imagine that fossil fuels use will ever be reduced to anything close to the critical target levels needed, until as mentioned before we are faced with truly massive global financial losses, collapsing governments and billions dead and suffering!
You have also probably realized that we have only the tiniest of chances for not crossing the carbon ppm level over the next years. At times it may sound like our global warming message is conflicted, but it is not. We are truly at our last chance to turn things around, and the odds that we will do so are weighted VERY heavily against us. We do not sugarcoat or hide the fact from you that it is going to be extremely challenging to achieve the last chance reduction targets.
We will once again do too little too late or, self deceive ourselves once again just like we have done for the last 35 years. We have given you the good, bad and the ugly truths about our global warming extinction emergency because we know that it is important for you to have all of the information to evaluate for yourself in order to make the best possible choices for you and your loved ones.
In spite of the unbelievable mess we find ourselves in, you can rely upon the fact that we are always working for the best possible outcome making the immediate radical global fossil fuel cuts required, while at the same time preparing for the worst possible outcome preparing to save and salvage whatever we can of humanity and civilization in case it all goes terribly bad which, unfortunately, now appears more likely than not.
Working for the best possible outcome while also preparing for the worst possible outcome is not a conflict, but a highly rational and optimized way of managing known and imminent risk and threat. For example, once we have done what is necessary to logically prepare for the worst possible outcome with a backup plan, Part 1 of the Job One Plan, we then forget about all of our emergency preparations and focus ALL of our energies upon working for the best possible outcome making the radical fossil fuel reductions in time to prevent the extinction of most if not all of humanity OR, at worst and at least, slowing escalating global warming down enough so that more people can live longer more comfortably Part 3 of the Job One Plan.
This preparing for the worst practice is not much different than what you are told before every airline flight in case there's a sudden change in altitude. You are told to always first put on your own oxygen mask before putting your children's masks. This way at least someone is still able to function at the minimum required level to save and salvage the children. Similarly, we ask the same of you. Get prepared for what is coming so you too can help us by focusing all your energies on meeting the global fossil fuel reduction targets. Our message also never loses sight of the functional and practical truth that if we miss the global fossil fuel reduction targets, our odds of avoiding mass extinction within our lifetimes is unthinkably low to nonexistent.
There is a simple near-absolute equation of the highest possible human value that we never forget when forwarding our mission. Click this link and start feeling better. For information on the exact tipping points and consequences of the global warming extinction emergency, click here. There are other very challenging reasons why we won't make the targets in time. These reasons involve different climate, human, and biological system inertias and momentums to complex to discuss in a short article.
These additional reasons are found on other pages on the Joboneforhumanity. Optional email code. The Sept 20 Global climate strike involving over locations and millions of people will be rendered far less effective It will focus your mind and open your heart to what is real August was a busy month for global warming news.
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Here are the important updates. Any person who realizes that our governments are There is a lot to update you about on global warming emergency this month especially since we missed last month's Sign in with Facebook , Twitter or email. Is global warming out of control for the next years and, are we facing mass extinction within our lifetimes?
Introduction "You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about. It will show you how: 1. A little history first The reasons we will not achieve the critical global fossil fuel reduction targets and maybe no any other reduction targets for the next years Each of the 13 reasons below has additional links leading you to the full documentation proving that particular statement is itself true.
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Showing 1 reaction. Sign in with. Remember me. Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account. Floyd Mitchell followed this page Sep 19, Read more. Have you seen the most important and honest major media article about global warming in decades? Sep 13, What to do about global warming sadness, anger or anxiety Aug 12, Subscribe to Free Global Warming Blog. Barnett helped with the English. We thank K. Frankowicz from Jagiellonska library from the University Jagiellonski, Poland, for permission to reproduce the animal images.
Conceived and designed the experiments: ARMP. Wrote the paper: ARMP. Old literature search: ACMB. Browse Subject Areas? Click through the PLOS taxonomy to find articles in your field. Introduction The biodiversity crisis that threatens the planet can be considered the sixth major extinction event [ 1 ], and tropical forest deforestation is causing extinctions at unprecedented rates [ 2 , 3 ].go here
The KT extinction
Download: PPT. Fig 1. Former mammalian community of the CEPE Using past and present literature [ 10 , 32 , 33 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 53 , 54 , 55 ], we built a checklist of the medium- and large-sized mammalian species that, unless human action had caused their extirpation, could be expected to be found in the CEPE. Data Analysis We used a one-way Chi-Square Goodness of Fit statistic to test the hypothesis that the current number of species of medium-sized mammals in the CEPE is significantly lower than that registered prior to Brazilian colonization.
Results The former and current mammalian fauna richness in the CEPE The former mammalian community of the CEPE included 43 medium- and large-sized mammal species, whereas the current mammalian fauna comprised only Table 1. Fig 2.
Extinct large mammal species depicted by the first colonizers of the Atlantic coast of northeastern Brazil. Table 2. Occurrence of the medium- and large-sized mammals in the different size classes of the studied forest fragments in northeastern Brazil. Table 3. Abundance of the current mammalian fauna in the CEPE Independent of the number or type of forest fragments, the most abundant species was the common marmoset Callithrix jaccchus , which was sighted at a rate of Table 4.
Abundance of the medium- and large-sized mammals in the Pernambuco Endemism Centre, Brazil. Environmental determinants of the richness and abundance of the mammalian fauna in the forest fragments of the CEPE The Linear Analysis of Covariance ANCOVA showed that neither the species richness nor the sighting rate is controlled by vegetation type, fragment area, fragment isolation, or any interaction among these factors Table 5. Table 5. Whole models comparing the fitted model against the intercept-only model and model effect decompositions for each of the two response factors species richness and sighting rates according to the Generalized Linear Model analysis Factorial Analysis of Covariance—ANCOVA.
Table 6. Measure of nestedness for the medium- and large-sized mammal assemblages in the 21 forest fragments studied according to the arrangement of three matrices. Table 7. Measure of column-only nestedness for the medium- and large-sized mammal assemblages in the 21 forest fragments studied according to the arrangement of three matrices. Table 8. Whole models comparing the fitted model against the intercept-only model and the effect of the fragment area on the probability of medium-sized mammal species encounters according to the Binomial Logistic Regression.
Discussion After more than years of colonization, the Atlantic forest of northeastern Brazil, specifically the CEPE, has lost at least half of its medium-sized and all large-sized mammals. Supporting Information. S1 Table. Ordered according to fragment size. References 1. Pimm SL, Raven P. Extinction by numbers. Time lag between deforestation and bird extinction in tropical forest fragments. Conserv Biol. View Article Google Scholar 3. The small mammals of the highly impacted northeastern Atlantic forest of Brazil, Pernambuco Endemism Center.
Biota Neotrop. View Article Google Scholar 4. Catastrophic extinctions follow deforestation in Singapore. Comparative losses of British butterflies, birds, and plants and the global extinction crisis. Home range use and the exploitation of gum in the marmoset Callithrix jacchus jacchus. Int J Primatol. View Article Google Scholar 7. Chiarello AG. Effects of fragmentation of the Atlantic forest on mammal communities in south-eastern Brazil. Biol Conserv. View Article Google Scholar 8. Fernandes ACA. Thesis, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco. Sleeping sites of common marmosets Callithrix jacchus in defaunated urban forest fragments: a strategy to maximize food intake.
View Article Google Scholar McNab BK. Bioenergetics and the determination of home range size. Am Nat. Park size and the conservation of forest mammals in Latin America. Latin American mammalogy, history, biodiversity, and conservation. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press; Multivariate correlates of extinction proneness in a naturally fragmented landscape. Divers Distrib. The effect of a mega-fragmentation process on large mammal assemblages in the highly-threatened Pernambuco Endemism Center, north-eastern Brazil.
Biodivers Conserv. Woodroffe R, Ginsberg JR. Edge effects and the extinction of populations inside protected areas. The theory of island biogeography. Princeton: Princeton University Press; Harris LD. The fragmented forest, island biogeography theory and the preservation of biotic diversity. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Prance GT. Forest refuges: evidences from woody angiosperms. In: Prance GT, editor. Biological diversification in the tropics. New York: Columbia University Press; Biogeography of neotropical plants.
Biogeography and quaternary history in tropical America. Oxford: Clarendon Press; Status of the biodiversity of the Atlantic forest of Brazil. The Atlantic forest of South America: biodiversity status, threats, and outlook. Drastic erosion in functional attributes of tree assemblages in Atlantic forest fragments of northeastern Brazil.
Searching for hotspots within a hotspot—using global prioritization schemes at a regional level. An example from the Northern Western Ghats. In: conbio.
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Carnaval C, Moritz C. Predicting diversity within hotspots to enhance conservation. Dynamics and restoration of forest fragments in the Brazilian Atlantic moist forest. Tropical forest remnants: ecology, management, and conservation of fragmented communities. The Brazilian Atlantic forest: how much is left, and how is the remaining forest distributed: implications for conservation. The fragmented Atlantic rain forest of Brazil: size, shape and distribution of forest fragments. Habitat alteration and species loss in Brazilian forests.
Tropical deforestation and species extinction. London: Chapman and Hall; Tree species impoverishment and the future flora of the Atlantic forest of northeastern Brazil. Fragmentation causes rarity in common marmosets in the Atlantic forest of northeastern Brazil. Michalski F, Peres CA. Disturbance-mediated mammal persistence and abundance-area relationship in Amazonian forest fragments. Gandavo PM. Salvador FV. Brasilia original edition by Salvador, : Melhoramentos; In: Bicca-Marques JC, editor. A primatologia no Brasil. Interactions in a changing world: the Brazilian Atlantic Forest—a case study on direct and indirect human impacts on a threatened ecosystem Symposium.